What population explosion?

It is raining outside, again, I'm bored with Facebook, and TV hurts my brain so, as you do, I downloaded the UN 2013 Population report tonight - all 118 pages and that's just the 'highlights' version. I won't pretend I read it all but I was fascinated by the chapter on human global fertility. Take a look at this chart.

I was brought up on all that doomsday stuff about population explosion and all of us standing squashed together until we fell into the sea. But things have changed big time. It all began (according to the UN, and I guess they know) in 1965.  That was the year the fertility rate (number of children per woman) fell below the 'replacement level', which is approximately 2.3, in 'developed regions'.  In other words a couple needs to produce 2.3 children to replace those who die (allowing for those who are childless) to maintain a steady population.  So ever since populations in developed regions have been declining (if you ignore migration which does not effect total global population).

1965 was also the year when fertility rates in less developed regions started to fall rather than increase and the same happened a decade later in the least developed regions. 

What is driving this?  Basically (says the UN) improved economies in places such as China, India and Brazil. The better off people are economically the less children they have (or can afford!)  Poor people cannot afford not to have lots of children. Rich people cannot affort to have children.

Any implications for mission?  I'm just beginning to get my mind around this but I see huge implications.  For a start we are going to have to learn how to share the gospel with 40 year olds and 105 year olds, not just children, youth and students. And in terms of holistic mission, what does the gospel mean in a world where more and more older people have fewer and fewer young people to care for them?

Lot's more thinking to do!

Listening

Some days I talk too much but today I have been listening, and it wasn't always easy. In fact it has left me arguing with myself.

Most of the day was spent with Nigerian colleagues who are staying in my house and then joined me in the office for the day. Titus leads the Church of Nigeria Missionary Society, an indigenous Anglican Nigerian mission movement. Listening to him talk about their work in West Africa was inspirational - especially as he spoke about their new work in Togo, Chad and elsewhere. The picture here is of a new church planted quite recently in Togo. The challenge came later.

In the evening we fell to talking about politics in Nigeria and predictably the role of Islam in that country was soon a hot topic. Living in leafy Oxford with Muslim friends along the road and a Muslim security guard at work who comes to pray with me, it is really quite painful to listen to Nigerian Christians talking about Muslims. Their context is so different. Half of me wants to understand but the other half wants to stop listening and go one living with the illusion that we really can work out our differences as friends walking together along the Isis (the river at the end of my road).

Tonight my internet friend from Romania wrote to me again. His mission is to persuade me that I am wrong to regard many of my Orthodox friends as Christian. I wanted to hit the 'delete' key but somehow I know that was dishonest. I need to listen even though it hurts me to have my Orthodox friends described that way. My 'friend' has a view. It is not my view. It offends me at times. God give me grace to listen. That delete key is so tempting.